A streetcar named Doesn't Matter

I have just downloaded summaries of last Monday's Toronto municipal elections from the City of Toronto's open data site. A contentious issue in the ward, and a controversial issue throughout the city, has been the renovation of the streetcar line along St. Clair Avenue West. The incumbent councillor, Joe Mihevc, was blamed by many for problems with the renovation. Although he was re-elected, I wanted to see if the renovation had affected where he got his support.

Only two candidates, Mr. Mihevc and Shimmy Posen, won any of the polling subdivisions; Mr. Mihevc won 20 and Mr. Posen 10. My idea was that if the streetcar-line renovation had affected his support, Mr. Mihevc would have drawn his support from polling subdivisions away from St. Clair Ave.

On the map of the ward below, subdivisions won by Mr. Mihevc are shown in red and those won by Mr. Posen in blue. Subdivisions outside the ward are in grey. St. Clair Avenue is marked by the black lines extending beyond the borders of the ward.Clearly, Mr. Mihevc's support was strong along St. Clair Avenue. The variable that chiefly determined support was income, with Mr. Posen's strength almost entirely in the affluent neighbourhoods north of Nordheimer/Cedarvale Ravine, and Mr. Mihevc's chiefly in the south. However, Mr. Mihevc won some well-off subdivisions near St. Clair West as well. Despite all the problems created by the renovation of the streetcar line, problems which were raised by the successful mayoral candidate at an all-candidates' meeting in the heart of Mihevc territory just before the election, St. Clair West remained part of Joe Mihevc's stronghold.